docbungle:

Maths maths in toy soldiers how crazy ;)

Originally posted on Sustained Attack:

“tell me the chances of 6 on three dice (d6), 4 times in about 10 rolls”

EDIT: A non-ambiguous version of this question: what are the chances of getting a sum of exactly 6 on 3 six-sided dice exactly 4 times in 10 rolls?

And the answers fly! And they are all wrong.

So let’s look at an easy example. Given that you are rolling two d6, what is the probability that you will roll exactly one six?

  • It’s the probability that you’ll roll a six plus the probability of not rolling a six? ( P(6) + P(~6) => 1/6 + 5/6 = 1   100% huh?
  • It’s the probability that you’ll roll a six times the probability of not rolling a six? (  P(6) * P(~6)  => 1/6 * 5/6 = 5/36    Nope, too low
  • It’s one minus the probability of not rolling a six in the roll? ( 1 –…

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